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What does a p-value represent?

  1. A The probability of observing data at least as extreme, assuming the null hypothesis is true
  2. B The probability the hypothesis is true
  3. C The size of the effect
  4. D The probability of a fluke
Answer

The probability of observing data at least as extreme, assuming the null hypothesis is true

It conveys nothing about magnitude, which is why effect size and confidence intervals should always accompany it.

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