How do you know if your DCF is too dependent on future assumptions?

The “standard” answer: if significantly more than 50% of the company’s Enterprise Value comes from its Terminal Value, your DCF is probably too dependent on future assumptions.

In reality, almost all DCFs are “too dependent on future assumptions” – it’s actually quite rare to see a case where the Terminal Value is less than 50% of the Enterprise Value.

But when it gets to be in the 80-90% range, you know that you may need to re-think your assumptions…